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बिहार चुनावों की पड़ताल-8-स्वर्णिम चुनाव परिणाम

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बिहार में कई सप्ताह तक धुँआधार किन्तु कमोबेश स्वस्थ चुनाव प्रचार चला। धुरंधरों ने जमकर आँकलन और विश्लेषण किया। चुनाव आयोग ने शानदार चुनाव प्रबंध किया। जनता ने पूरे उत्साह से चुनाव प्रक्रिया में भाग लिया। सब कुछ लोकतंत्र की गरिमा के अनुकूल हुआ। लोकतंत्र की स्पिरिट के अनुरूप चुनाव परिणामों ने ओपिनियन और एग्जिट पोल दोनों को धता दिया। अंतिम चुनाव परिणाम के लिए सभी संबद्ध पक्ष, बिहार व देश की जनता, मीडिया और विश्लेषक सब धड़कनें रोके देर रात तक प्रतीक्षा करते रहे। अंत में एनडीए को ‘ठेल-ठालकर’ बहुमत मिला और नीतीश कुमार के ‘अंत भला तो सब भला’ का मार्ग प्रशस्त हुआ। बस एक कसक रह गयी। राजद और काँग्रेस ने चुनाव प्रक्रिया पर अवांछित आरोप लगाकर चुनाव प्रक्रिया गरिमामय नहीं रहने दिया।

दो महीने पहले बिहार चुनाव एनडीए के पक्ष में एकतरफा लग रहा था। नीतीश कुमार सरकार के विरूद्ध एंटी इनकमबेन्सी पहले से थी। धीरे-धीरे यह अधिक दिखने लगा। टर्निंग प्वाइंट तब आया जब लोजपा एनडीए से बाहर हुई लेकिन उसके नेता चिराग पासवान नरेन्द्र मोदी का हनुमान होने का दावा करते रहे। संभवत: लोजपा के एनडीए से बाहर होना महागठबंधन में यह आस जगा गया कि इस चुनाव में उनके लिए भी कुछ है। अंत में यह सिद्ध भी हुआ। लोजपा ने अपना चिराग बुझा देने की कीमत पर एनडीए को लगभग हरा ही दिया था, जदयू को अनेक सीटों पर पंचर करके। लोजपा का सिर्फ एक दीया जला पर उसके प्रताप से लालटेन जलते-जलते, तीर टलते-टलते और कमल मुरझाते-मुरझाते रह गया।

महागठबंधन राजद के नेतृत्व में वाम दलों और काँग्रेस के साथ गोलबंद हुआ। वाम दलों ने महागठबंधन को लाभ पहुँचाया और विधानसभा में अपनी उपस्थिति भी मजबूत की। काँग्रेस का 19/70 का कमजोर स्ट्राइक रेट देखकर यह कहा जा सकता है कि उसे 70 सीटें देना महागठबंधन के लिए भारी पड़ा। राजद के साथ चुनाव परिणामों पर गाल बजाकर काँग्रेस ने अपना फलूदा अलग से किया। एएनडीए ने लोजपा की भरपाई करने की कोशिश करते हुए मुकेश सहनी और जीतनराम माँझी को अपने पाले में ले लिया। कुशवाहा, ओवैसी और बसपा के गठजोड़ में ओवैसी ने 5 सीटें जीतीं लेकिन उन्होंने महागठबंधन का खेल सीमांचल की अनेक सीटों पर बिगाड़ दिया। पप्पू यादव पूरे बिहार में फिसड्डी ही सिद्ध हुए।

एनडीए और महागठबंधन दोनोंं अपनी अपनी खूबियों-खामियों के साथ मैदान में थे। एनडीए 15 वर्ष की सरकार की ऊब और खीझ झेल रहा था। नीतीश कुमार की अलोकप्रियता बड़ी लाइबिलिटी बनती दिख रही थी। बिजली, सड़क और कानून व्यवस्था की शानदार उपलब्धियों के बीच पिछले पाँच वर्षों से शराबबंदी और नल-जल पर ठिठका विकास और बेलगाम नौकरशाही भी एनडीए की कमजोर कड़ी बन रहे थे। पलायन, रोजगार और उद्योग के प्रश्न चुप्पी या बिना रोडमैप लिप-सर्विस और कोरोना जनित पलायन एनडीए को कमजोर कर रहे थे। सरकारी कर्मचारियों और खास तौर पर संविदा कर्मचारियों का रूख भी एनडीए के लिए चिन्ताजनक था। सत्ता से दंभ की दुर्गंध आ रही थी। वहीं प्रधानमंत्री नरेन्द्र मोदी की लोकप्रियता, तथाकथित जंगलराज का डर और सापेक्षता पर वोटिंग की आस एनडीए में प्राण फूँक रहे थे।

महागठबंधन अपेक्षित रूप से जंगलराज की अपनी लाइबिलिटी से लड़ रहा था। राजद के पोस्टर्स से लालू, राबड़ी और मीसा के फोटो हटाकर इसे कम करने की कोशिश हुई लेकिन शायद ही जंगलराज के भूत ने उसका पीछा छोड़ा। तेजस्वी यादव ने खूब भीड़ जुटाई और मीडिया ने उन्हें एक उभरता नेता करार दिया। उनके संक्षिप्त भाषणों में पंच के साथ किये गये दस लाख नौकरी के वादे से युवा बहुत हद तक कनेक्ट भी होते दिखे। ऐसा लगने लगा कि बिहार में राजद ने रोजगार को बिहार का चुनावी मुद्दा बना दिया है। पहली कैबिनेट बैठक में 10 लाख नौकरी देने के वादे की व्यवहारिकता पर प्रश्न उठने के बावजूद तेजस्वी को इस श्रेय से वंचित नहीं किया जा सकता कि उन्होंने अपने मुद्दा चुनावों में सफलतापूर्वक उछाल दिया जिस पर एनडीए लगभग बचाव की मुद्रा में ही रहा।

ओपिनियन पोल में एनडीए को विजेता बताया गया। उन्हीं चुनाव विशेषज्ञों ने एग्जिट पोल में महागठबंधन की एकतरफा जीत की भविष्यवाणी कर दी। संभवत: वे तेजस्वी की सभाओं में उमड़ती भीड़ से गच्चा खा गये। साथ ही उन्होंने उन मतदाता समूहों की बात नहीं सुनी जो मुखर नहीं समझे जाते। इसमें महिलाओं और अति पिछड़े वर्ग के मतदाता हैं, दलितों को भी इसमें शामिल किया जा सकता है। रोमांचक चुनाव परिणामों के आलोक में यहाँ यह कहना भी आवश्यक है कि एनडीए के पक्ष में विश्लेषण कर रहे विशेषज्ञ भी 15 वर्ष के जंगलराज और नीतीश कुमार के शुरूआती वर्षों के सुशासन के मायाजाल से बाहर निकलकर बिहार की बढ़ती जन आकांक्षाओं को नहीं पढ़ सके।

कई विशेषज्ञ महागठबंधन की संभावित जीत पर बिहार में जातिवाद आधारित मतदान की प्रवृत्ति टूटने की बात करने लगे लेकिन सत्य यह है कि जातिगत मतदान बिहार की वास्तविकता है। यह चुनाव भी अपवाद नहीं था। बिहार चुनाव एनडीए और महागठबंधन के सामाजिक आधार और संख्या बल पर ही हुए। सापेक्षता के सिद्धांत ने भी अपना असर दिखाया। एंटी इनकमबेन्सी के कारण एनडीए का वोट शेयर कम हुआ। लोजपा के जाने का भी असर हुआ। जदयू को बहुत नुकसान उठाना पड़ा और अब वह 43 सीटों के साथ एनडीए में छोटे भाई की भूमिका में है। महागठबंधन का वोट शेयर बढ़ा और उसने एनडीए के बराबर ही वोट (लगभाग 38 प्रतिशत) पाया किन्तु अंतिम संख्या बल में वह पिछड़ गया। नीतीश कुमार की अलोकप्रियता, पाँच वर्ष के लचर कार्यकाल और लोजपा फैक्टर ने एनडीए को लगभग हरा ही दिया था लेकिन मोदी मैजिक और महिलाओं ने उसे बाल-बाल बचा लिया।

जदयू बहुत कमजोर हुआ है लेकिन नीतीश कुमार का 15 वर्ष की ऊब और खीझ के बाद मुख्यमंत्री बनना कोई छोटी उपलब्धि नहीं है। यह कहना होगा कि उनके सामने थाली रखने में उसकी भूमिका अहम रही जिससे कुछ वर्ष पहले उन्होंने थाली छीनी थी। इस बात की पूरी संभावना है कि इस चुनाव परिणाम में बिहार में देर-सवेर होने वाला नेतृत्व परिवर्तन और नीतीश कुमार का रिटायरमेंट प्लान भी छिपा है। भाजपा (74) बिहार की राजनीति में शीर्ष भूमिका में आ गयी, हालाँकि उसे इस बात की कसक होगी कि वह राजद (75) से एक सीट पीछे रहकर सबसे बड़ा दल बनने से वंचित रह गयी।

राजद 2015 से कुछ कम ही सीटी है लेकिन चुनाव परिणामों में राजनीतिक दल के रूप में वह मजबूत ही हुआ है। कम से कम उसके नेता तेजस्वी यादव अपने पिता की छाया से उबरकर एक नेता के रूप में उभरे हैं। उनके सामने पार्टी के सामाजिक विस्तार को बढ़ाने की चुनौती है। काँग्रेस पिछलग्गू बनकर भी कुछ अधिक नहीं पा सकी। अब अपने विधायकों को बचाए रखना ही उसकी सबसे बड़ी चुनौती होगी। वाम दलों ने महागठबंधन से मिले मौके को शानदार तरीके से भुनाया है लेकिन यह कहना जल्दबाजी होगी कि वे अपने पुराने रंग में आ गये हैं।

ओवैसी की धमक भाजपा के लिए सुखद है, राजद के लिए धक्का। उपेन्द्र कुशवाहा का फिसड्डी सिद्ध होना अपेक्षित ही था पर पप्पू यादव से बेहतर प्रदर्शन की उम्मीद थी। नयी बातें करतीं पुष्पम प्रिया अंत में  ईवीएम पर लकीर की फकीर हो गयीं। सबसे बड़ी लूजर निर्विवाद रूप से लोजपा है। एनडीए में रहकर वह 15-20 सीटें जीतती पर उसने जदयू को हराने के लिए अपना सूपड़ा साफ करने का जोखिम ले लिया। पार्टी का खाता बमुश्किल खुला। भाजपा की लोजपा नीति पर भी अनेकों प्रश्न उठेंगे। जीतनराम माँझी एनडीए के भरोसे 4 विधायक जिता ले गये और मुकेश सहनी ने सिमरी बख्तियारपुर से स्वयं हारकर भी अपनी पार्टी को उभार दिया। संभवत: वह भाजपा की कृपा से वह विधान परिषद में होंगे और बिहार में ईबीसी नेता के रूप में उभरने की कोशिश करेंगे।

यह चुनाव परिणाम स्वर्णिम जनादेश है। इसने सिर्फ पुरानी प्रतिष्ठा के बल पर चल रहे लचर शासन को कमजोर करके उसे झकझोरा है। कुशासन के इतिहास वाली राजनीति विरासत में लेकर कोरी लफ्फाजी करते युवा नेता को नकार कर इसने बिहार को संभावित कुशासन में ढ़केले जाने से भी रोक लिया गया है। चुनाव परिणाम ने शिथिल पड़ी अनुभवी कर्मठता को अनुभवहीन लफ्फाजी के उपर वरीयता दी है और शिथिलता को जोरदार झटका भी दिया है।

इस चुनाव परिणाम में जितनी सीख पराजित गठबंधन के लिए है, उससे कहीं अधिक विजेता के लिए। चुनाव परिणाम साफ कहता है कि एनडीए की भावी सरकार अपने टिपकारी विकास के चक्र से बाहर निकले और बिहार को शेष भारत की बराबरी पर लाने के लिए गंभीरता से कार्य करे। डबल इंजन सरकार फिर से आई है, डबल इंजन का लोड भी ले। पिछले कार्यकाल में उसने सिंगल इंजन का भी लोड नहीं लिया। आइए, आशा करें कि एनडीए सरकार पिछले कार्यकाल की भरपाई  करते हुए बिहार को समग्र विकास की ओर ले जाएगा।

#बिहारचुनावपरिणाम   #बिहारचुनाव2020  #बिहार #एनडीए #महागठबंधन

 

 

लेखक गद्य विधा में हास्य-व्यंग्य, कथा साहित्य, संस्मरण और समीक्षा आदि लिखते हैं। वह यदा कदा राजनीतिक लेख भी लिखते हैं। अपनी कविताओं को वह स्वयं कविता बताने से परहेज करते हैं और उन्हे तुकबंदी कहते हैं। उनकी रचनाएं उनके अवलोकन और अनुभव पर आधारित होते हैं। उनकी रचनाओं में तत्सम शब्दों के साथ आंचलिक शब्दावली का भी पुट होता है। लेखक ‘लोपक.इन’ के लिए नियमित रुप से लिखते रहे हैं। उनकी एक समीक्षा ‘स्वराज’ में प्रकाशित हुई थी। साथ ही वह दैनिक जागरण inext के स्तंभकार भी हैं। वह मंडली.इन के संपादक है। वह एक आइटी कंपनी में कार्यरत हैं।

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